FOR football clubs, August is often the costliest month, when they make vast bids for each other’s players. This year has been particularly lavish. On August 3rd Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), a French team, signed Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior, a Brazilian forward, from Barcelona for €222m ($264m), more than double the previous record price for a footballer.

对于足球俱乐部来说，八月份往往是花钱如流水的一个月，因为俱乐部之间会有大量的球员交易，今年则尤其奢华。8月3日，法国巴黎圣日耳曼队（PSG）以2.22亿欧元（2.64亿美元）在巴塞罗那签下巴西前锋内马尔·达席尔瓦·桑托斯·约尼尔（Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior），是之前球员转会纪录翻了一倍多。

With three weeks of the transfer “window” left, teams in Europe’s “big five” leagues—the top divisions in England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France—have paid €3.2bn, just short of the record of €3.4bn set last year. The €179m splurged by Manchester City, an English club, on defenders outstrips 47 countries’ defence budgets. Arsène Wenger, a veteran manager of Arsenal, a London team, and an economics graduate, describes the modern transfer market as “beyond calculation and beyond rationality”.

现在转会“窗口”还有三周时间，欧洲“五大联赛”（英格兰，西班牙，德国，意大利和法国的顶级联赛）的球队花了32亿欧元，略低于去年34亿欧元的纪录。英国曼彻斯特城（Manchester City）俱乐部斥资1.79亿欧元购买防守球员，超过了47个国家的国防预算。 伦敦的阿森纳（Arsenal）俱乐部的资深经理，经济学出身的阿尔塞纳·温格（Arsène Wenger）把现代转移市场描述为“超越计算，超越理性”。

Neymar, as he is known, will cost PSG’s owners, a branch of Qatar’s sovereign-wealth fund, about €500m over five years. In the betting markets, his arrival has boosted PSG’s implied chances of winning the Champions League, Europe’s most coveted club competition—but only from around 5.5% to about 9%. And prize money and ticket sales alone struggle to generate enough revenue to recoup such an outlay.

据他所知，在五年内，PSG的所有者（即卡塔尔主权财富基金下的一个基金）将向内马尔支付约5亿欧元。在博彩市场上，他的到来意味着PSG有机会赢得欧洲冠军联赛——欧洲最令人垂涎的俱乐部比赛，但仅从5.5％左右上升到了9％左右。 单靠奖金和门票销售很难得到足够的收入来弥补这一支出。

That does not make Neymar a bad investment. The goals he scores may matter less than the gloss he lends to the club’s brand and the sponsors he will lure. He earns more from endorsements than any footballer except Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. Some 59% of PSG’s revenue of €520m last year was commercial (ie, other than ticket sales and broadcasting fees), more than any other club in the big five leagues. Neymar has more followers on Instagram, a social network, than does Nike, his main sponsor and the provider of PSG’s kit, for which privilege it pays €24m a year. Neymar’s popularity will help PSG when this deal is renegotiated. Nike has already agreed to pay Barcelona €155m a season from 2018.

不过，这并不会让内马尔的转会投入变糟。他的进球的重要性可能还比不上他赋予大巴的品牌效应以及和吸引的赞助商。他的代言收入仅次于克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多(Cristiano Ronaldo)和莱昂内尔·梅西(Lionel Messi)。大巴黎去年5.2亿欧元的收入中有59％是商业收入（即除了门票销售和广播费），是五大联赛中最多的。内马尔在Instagram上的粉丝数量比他的主要赞助商和PSG服装提供商NIKE还多。耐克每年给大巴黎2400万欧元的服装费。内马尔的众多球迷数量有助于PSG重新与耐克谈判。 耐克此前同意从2018年开始每赛季向巴塞罗那支付1.55亿欧元。

PSG’s owners are confident of breaking even, though they could afford a loss. Qatar has been spending €420m a week preparing for the 2022 World Cup, and the signing of Neymar is a message that the otherwise embattled country remains strong and rich. The danger is to PSG, since under “financial fair play” rules, teams are punished if they fail to limit their losses. In 2014 the club was fined for violating these. Another failure to balance the books could mean a ban from the Champions League.

尽管大巴黎的老板们能受得了亏损，他们有信心实现盈利。卡塔尔每周要花费4.2亿欧元用于2022年世界杯的筹备工作，签约内马尔是一个信号，即这个麻烦重重的国家依然强大而富有。在“金融公平竞赛”规则下，PSG的危险在于如果不能控制亏损，球队将受到惩罚。2014年，大巴黎因违反规定而遭罚款。再一次出现亏损可能意味着遭冠军联赛的禁赛。

Such spending caps irk billionaire owners, but they have helped prevent the inflation of a transfer-fee bubble. The rapid rise is a result of European football’s expanding fan base. In the English Premier League, football’s richest, average net spending on players per club has stayed roughly constant, hovering at around 15% of revenue since the 1990s, according to the 21st Club, a football consultancy.

这种转会费上限的方式限制了亿万富翁们，但这有助于转会费泡沫造成的通胀情况。转会费迅速增长是欧洲足球球迷数不断增长造成的。据足球咨询机构第21俱乐部(21st club)的数据，在欧洲最富有的英超联赛(English Premier League)中，自上世纪90年代以来，在球员身上的平均净支出一直保持不变，一直徘徊在收入的15%左右。

As long as clubs’ revenues keep growing, the transfer boom is likely to persist. Broadcasting revenue, the game’s first big injection of cash in the 1990s, has become, in the internet era, the weakest link. British television audiences for live games have dipped as some fans opt for illegal streaming sites or free highlights. Zach Fuller, a media analyst, reckons that signing a sponsorship magnet like Neymar is a hedge against volatility in that market.

只要俱乐部的收入持续增长，转会热潮就有可能持续下去。在上世纪90年代，转播收入是对联赛注入的第一笔大规模资金，而在互联网时代却成为了最少的一环。由于一些球迷选择观看非法的视频网站或免费的精彩片段，英国电视直播的观众在减少。媒体分析师扎克·富勒（Zach Fuller）认为，签约像内马尔这样的赞助“吸铁石”是对该市场波动的一种对冲。

Audiences are more robust elsewhere: around 100m Chinese viewers tune into the biggest games. Manchester United are the most popular team on Chinese social media, despite qualifying for the Champions League only twice in the past four seasons. They have overtaken Real Madrid, who have won the trophy three times in the same period, as the world’s most prosperous club. If Neymar unlocks new markets as well as defences, then PSG may have backed a winner.

在欧洲以外地区的观众群体更壮大：大约1亿中国观众收看了强队比赛。曼联是中国社交媒体上球迷数最多的球队，尽管过去四个赛季只有两次晋级欧冠。 他们超过了同期三次获得冠军、成为世界上最繁荣的俱乐部的皇马。 如果内马尔能打开新市场的同时巩固现有的市场，那么，PSG可能会下注的是一个赢家。

编译：李文卓

审校：雷月营

编辑：翻吧君

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